Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 40.983894 48.406194 56.535168 66.065552 76.897669 88.790875 102.800180
2024-12-22 27.197930 36.265711 47.187363 61.171046 78.446836 98.929890 124.876259
2024-12-29 21.874604 31.975124 45.031635 62.844574 86.173236 115.318353 154.063526
2025-01-05 17.492192 27.759659 41.884063 62.234286 90.224241 126.730900 177.193959
2025-01-12 15.681073 26.627540 42.466254 66.298417 100.355665 146.268789 211.638093
2025-01-19 12.264046 22.468610 38.083540 62.713416 99.378836 150.558580 225.700078
2025-01-26 10.900782 21.245897 37.804426 64.913880 106.573587 166.298235 256.053408
2025-02-02 10.227240 21.029452 38.998310 69.355503 117.256956 187.457282 294.982979
2025-02-09 9.194326 20.000694 38.711367 71.357830 124.273463 203.555434 327.318100
2025-02-16 8.166637 18.799799 37.958905 72.462050 129.861941 217.707461 357.340359
2025-02-23 7.130746 17.399393 36.666933 72.484234 133.628935 229.177994 383.758311
2025-03-02 5.975393 15.544956 34.309481 70.398556 133.715290 234.847661 401.492988
2025-03-09 5.137594 14.314468 33.166505 70.730597 138.514552 249.221419 435.059101
2025-03-16 3.896530 11.903424 29.394852 65.886003 134.144627 248.812050 445.825636
2025-03-23 3.458542 11.292676 29.172010 67.690489 141.551625 268.040604 488.813741
2025-03-30 2.899173 10.223999 27.795824 67.042941 144.402815 279.716177 519.987343
2025-04-06 2.756110 10.247118 28.835101 71.365637 156.739061 308.157567 580.059338
2025-04-13 2.142614 8.745251 26.120040 67.552816 153.331149 309.060141 593.989874
2025-04-20 1.951196 8.467915 26.280977 69.893378 161.958720 331.556908 645.491937
2025-04-27 1.890170 8.599155 27.475158 74.615346 175.583872 363.606701 714.649813
2025-05-04 1.716586 8.300492 27.521445 76.743041 184.111551 386.774196 769.217162
2025-05-11 1.524864 7.877969 27.173357 77.916138 190.743962 406.736391 818.883465
2025-05-18 1.317491 7.325182 26.377583 77.939705 194.963865 422.373323 861.430290